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Friday, April 2, 2010

Door # 1, Door # 2 or Door #3

Door # 1, Door # 2 or Door #3





Brian Lynch

In this piece, I will be discussing three options: Door #1, Door #2, or Door #3. It's important to note that much of what I will say might resonate with those who already agree with me. The focus here is on psychology, which has taught us that changing someone's perspective is a difficult task. So, why write this column? It is that we can all improve our understanding of these dynamics.


A prime example of of being set in our ways is looking at our political affiliations. In the United States, people tend to identify as either Democrats or Republicans throughout their lives. Of course, there are instances of crossover, as indicated by the times when we have a President from one party and a different party controlling Congress. However, a significant portion of the population remains steadfastly aligned with one side.

This phenomenon extends to various topics, such as abortion, free markets, and unions. Everyone seems to have an opinion on these matters, which they often consider "common sense" or conventional wisdom. We grow up believing that our grandmother's common sense is the ultimate wisdom. However, it's important to recognize that this isn't always the case.

To challenge the notion of "common sense," let's consider the famous tree door problem. Imagine a game show where contestants must choose between Door #1, Door #2, or Door #3. Behind one door, there might be a brand new Cadillac, while the other two doors hold disappointing prizes like a goat. Once you make your choice, one of the remaining doors is opened, revealing a goat. At this point, you are given the opportunity to change your initial selection. Now, the question is: Does changing your choice affect your chances of winning the Cadillac?

Common sense might suggest that it makes no difference, but in reality, changing your choice significantly improves your odds of winning (for a detailed explanation, refer to [web address]).

Therefore, whenever we have the time to read, hear, or see something that challenges our thoughts or beliefs, it's crucial to take a moment and critically examine how we arrived at our current convictions. Did we merely accept them without question? Are they based on facts, scientific studies, or just something our grandmother said, or perhaps something we stumbled upon on the first webpage we found? Instead, we should invest the time to read at least two other sources, or even better, consult a variety of sources. We must also be mindful of confirmation bias—seeking information that confirms what we already believe. Research suggests that this confirmation bias often influences our reasoning.

In the fields of medicine and psychology, it is vital to seek multiple opinions. Common sense may be common, but the truth is not always easy to find.

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